Scientists model a California 'Frankenstorm'
Sun., Jan. 24, 2010
1861-1862 flooding proves that very scary scenarios are possible
Mud blocks Big Tujunga Canyon Road in Los Angeles, Calif., last Tuesday. While the state saw heavy rains all last week, scientists hunkered down to work on a "Frankenstorm" scenario for the future.
LOS ANGELES - Think the recent wild weather that hammered California was bad? Experts are imagining far worse.
As torrential rains pelted wildfire-stripped hillsides and flooded highways, a team of scientists hunkered down at the California Institute of Technology to work on a "Frankenstorm" scenario — a mother lode wintry blast that could potentially sock the Golden State.
The hypothetical but plausible storm would be similar to the 1861-1862 extreme floods that temporarily moved the state capital from Sacramento to San Francisco and forced the then-governor to attend his inauguration by rowboat.scenario "is much larger than anything in living memory," said project manager Dale Cox with the U.S. Geological Survey.
In the scenario, the storm system forms in the Pacific and slams into the West Coast with hurricane-force winds, hitting Southern California the hardest. After more than a week of ferocious weather, the system stalls for a few days. Another storm brews offshore and this time pummels Northern California.
Such a monster storm could unleash as much as 8 feet of rain over three weeks in some areas, said research meteorologist Martin Ralph with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who is part of the project.
It makes the latest Pacific storm system look like a drop in the bucket. A weeklong siege of storms walloped California, flooding coasts and roads, spawning tornadoes and forcing the evacuation of about 2,000 homes below fire-scarred mountains for fear of mudslides. The National Weather Service said the storms dumped up to a foot in the mountains northwest of Los Angeles in a week.
Drill set for next year
Weather experts say West Coast storms could get more frequent and severe with climate change. Last fall, a team of federal, state and academic experts was formed to tackle what would happen if a series of powerful storms lashed at the state for 23 days. The scenario is expected to be completed this summer and will be used in a statewide disaster drill next year.
Ironically, the team had scheduled meetings at Caltech to learn about the fictional storm's impact to dams, sewage treatment plants, transportation and the electrical grid. About a dozen canceled due to the storms.
"They had to deal with the real thing," said chief scientist Lucy Jones of the USGS.
The next step is to estimate economic damages as well as the risk of landslides and coastal erosion and impact to infrastructure and the environment.
Several scientists on storm watch were involved in the 2008 planning of a mock "Big One" on the San Andreas Fault that was incorporated into an earthquake preparedness drill.
L.A. saw new lakes in 'Great Flood'
The Great Flood of 1861-1862 was believed to be the most powerful and longest series of storms in state history, lasting a month and causing severe flooding.
The Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys were water-logged and spontaneous lakes popped up in the Mojave Desert and Los Angeles basin. Nearly a third of the young state's taxable land was destroyed.
Since there are few meteorological records available on the 1861-1862 events, scientists stitched together data from two recent storms to create the "Frankenstorm" scenarios.
Copyright 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
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Bruce Liu-4th Period
ReplyDeleteDisasters, whether they are natural or even man-caused, are horrible. The aftermath and destruction it leaves is extremely saddening. As technology advances, so does our ability to foresee these terrible events and make them more accurate. Those predictions will then allow us to make more perfect preparations to withstand the disaster. Everyone should realize that disasters are unavoidable and hard-to-detect. They have to make a stand for their own life first and prioritize what they should do in case of such an event. The scientists who are creating "Frankenstorm" scenarios should be praised for their contribution of providing data for future disasters that can leave many generations in pain.
Such advancements of technology also brings up concerning questions. Those questions have been often asked, yet they are just as often, ignored. The plundering of Earth's natural resources have caused irreversible damage to our environment. Some of our natural disasters are attributed to the destruction of environment. A prime example of this would be The Dust Bowl incident. Offshore drilling, the cutting down of forests, and so much more are all done by mankind. Maybe then, rather than trying to predict disasters, we should focus on the cause of such disasters. Sometimes, humans are the prime cause of disaster.
Mandy Kochen from 5th Period said:
ReplyDeleteI think it's impossible to really predict the weather and that the scientists might be wrong. This planet and what it's natural forces throw at us are very unprdictable and it can only be guessed at for what happens next. Maybe it's all just a big, funny, misunderstanding and there will never be a storm.... or maybe there will be a drought. Who knows....... Mother Nature is always pregnant.... in the form of her constant mood swings. You cannot fully, 100% predict th weather... it's just not possible.
ashle stokes from 6th period says:
ReplyDeleteyeah, these disaster are very devastating but who are they to predict during the 1800's that will happen anytime soon. we have more techonolgy to have a 90% prediction but that can change anytime. in the 1800's they didnt have the technology we are probided with today.
my question for my peers is: do you think if anything like was to per-say, predicted by the weather forecast, would you believe it would happen? explain
Kyle Robinson from 4th period says:
ReplyDeleteEven though we do have more technology today than we did in the 1800s, there is still no stop to a huge prolbem storm or hurrican. Even with all the technology in the world, there is still going to be some lives lost, and damage, atleast for now. Yes, there are ways like the people and group is doing to help there be less of these things, but it is not 100% preventable. And still, we need to take all percausions seriously. Even if they are not 100% percent preventable. It is better to be safe than sorry, as the old wise man says....
Um, i dont think we have to answer the quiestions, but i will anyways. To ashle stokes question: I would take percausion, cause things can change.
Jacob Fisher- 6th Period
ReplyDeleteI believe that even though weather is unpredictable, it is always a good idea to prepare for the future. There are few people who tells someone that they planned too much for a natural disaster.
I believe learning about the effects of these huge storms can really help the state. The more scenerios they look at,the more safe Californians would be if faced with such a catastrophic event.
It is imortant to know a place's past to predict its future. It is also important to know that history can easily repeat itself so scientst should look for the ways to help people who will be affected by this storm.
Milan Doshi- 5th period
ReplyDeleteThis generation is a generation of advancements and improvements. The ideas that this generation creates will prosper for generations to come. Weather is one of those concepts that have improved over time. Weather is so unpredictable just like the lives that we lead yet something has to be done to prevent it. We look to meteorologists to comfort us and make us feel better about natural disasters but all we can do is make sure we know they’re coming and be ready.
The scenario that scientists are conducting is a great idea because it gives the people of California and scientists what to expect when a storm of that nature actually does run through. They will know what to expect and will be ready for it when it comes rather than be blind sighted by it. This experiment will be one of the first to be conducted like this and if successful then can be used not only in the U.S. but other places around the world such as Haiti where precautions could have been taken in preparation for the earthquake. These sorts of projects can help our governments around the country save a lot of money because the money that is spent towards disaster relief can be spent towards these projects which will put us one step ahead of the game and future natural disasters to come.
The scientists of today have done a great job of learning from the past and making sure that those same mistakes don’t happen in the present and especially in the future. The 1861 to 1862 flooding and storm sent scientists a message to make sure that a storm of that stature was prevented in the future and that the damage that had happened didn’t happen in the future because as much as Mother Earth is beautiful, she can be dangerous and it’s the job of our generation and our scientists to tame her.
Jared Cooper 6th period
ReplyDeleteI think that it is always good to prepare your self for what ever happens. Everybody knows that weather is unpredictable just use houston as an example. The meteoroligst could say that its freezing cold outside and when u go outside its 90 degress. There is no such thing as being "to prepared". Mother nature is dangers sometimes. The 1861 to 1862 storm sent the scientists a message saying that it could happen but this time it could get worse even though it happen a long time ago. I think that learning about the storms could help califorina.
Delma Mathew 6th peroid
ReplyDeleteIt is not likely that the meteorologists are always right about how the weather is going to be like. It is not very easy to predict what the weather is going to be like tommorow. The meteorologists tells us always that we have to be prepared for it. The problem is that we don't know how to get ready for any kinds of bad weather, because it can happen at any time . I agree with Jared that the mother nature is dangerous sometimes. The 1861 and 1862 storms holds a great meaning that the weather could go wrong anytime, and how it is not very easy to overcome. For exmple, if the earthquakes in Haiti were tracked, more than 100,000 lives could have been daved. This shows that mother nature can attack any time.It is very important to know what took place in the history because the same thing can happen again on Earth.
Alexis Willis-5th Period :)
ReplyDeleteOk, if it could rain,snow,hot, and regular breezy weather in one week and Texas!!! Anything could happen with the weather. And the sciencetist did not have anything to do with it. All they did was go outside look up, and came back to the news reporter to report it. Now with the new technology that we have in 2010, sciencetist may "predict" what might be the weather for the week, but they could be 99% right, there is always that 1% of doubt. Now i believe in God, if others do not, thats them. And i know that as my God, He is in control of EVERYTHING. So whatever he wants to go down, thats what im going to roll with. ;)
Carlos Betancourt Period 4
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to storms or hurricanes meteorologists tend to exaggerate quite a bit. I understand that the whole idea behind it is to keep us alert and safe but let’s face it it tends to never be as bad as they say. We usually over react for no absolute reason. The world throws at us all sorts of challenges simply to see what we will do. I truly respect meteorologists and what they do but I just don’t buy it. The 1800’s were a very long time ago; one can’t simply compare something if they weren’t there to experience it. The storm might have been quite severe but we don’t know just how much. After the dreadful disaster hurricane in Haiti, I can see how Meteorologists would freak out over the chance of a massive storm. I’m the kind of person that when it comes to natural events I believe that whatever happens happens. It’s really sad to see how people all over the world suffer due to some sort of natural disaster. In my opinion, that is when we come in to help. Maybe we cannot do too much but we can certainly send at least a couple of dollars just to show we are concerned. Natural disasters are always painful to all, and there is nothing we can do but help. Most of the major disasters that occur on this planet are usually never predicted way ahead of time and the ones that are supposedly the worst are never that bad. It’s a very complex concept and it involves choosing a side according to what one believes.
Adam Pye
ReplyDelete5th Period
As Mandy said I don't believe that scientist are very accurate on this prediction. The rain that occured back in the 1860's is not a very good sign for what will happen next year. I believe that they will be able to make a more accurate prediction when the time comes. Some years are just rainy, last year it rained for about a week straight here in Texas, and nothing major happened. I believe that three weeks of non-stop rain is impossible, so I'm not very concerned about possible flooding in Califormia next year.
Jonathan Cheung
ReplyDeletePeriod 4
Disasters are an inevitable part of life no matter where you live. Sure some are predictable, like hurricanes and tornadoes. Yet some are not, like earthquakes and volcano eruptions.With the technology man has acquired in this day and age, meteorologists and other staff are constantly analyzing data to help warn and caution people as early as possible about any natural disasters. Though all disasters can be predicted, any disaster struck will provide new insight on ways to detect and caution once again like the 1861-1862 storms. California stepped up to the challenge by setting up many drills and evacuation plans just in case. In my opinion, they are the class standard in terms of emergency preparedness compared to the rest of the country.
Meghan Patterson 5th
ReplyDeleteI think it is amazing that our technology today can help us forsee major disasters such as a "Frankenstorm". Our advances in technolgoy will help us see what a major storm in California will do. By this we can see how it will affect the economy, how much distruction there will be, and where this storm might hit the most. By these things we can be prepared for the worst and know exactly what to do when one of these "Frankenstorms" hits.
Jeralyn Laran 4th Period
ReplyDeleteDisasters like this are very dangerous. We should be ready for whenever it comes, it case it does; that way you know what to do in an event that you might have to move out of the area quickly. I agree with kyle robinson in her statement. Even though the technology is far more different than it was before, we still need to think of the affects of the storm. It would help save lives. There may be alot of damage and economic finances, but at least you would know that you are safe because you took the safe way out.
Samantha Lang 5th
ReplyDeleteEven though its nice to have people trying to keep us safe by predicting the weather, its not really fool-proof. I think its a great thing to try to protect us and make future predictions on weather patterns. I think it will help immensely on focusing on where the damage will occur and the economic troubles that will be the outcome of the disastrous weather patterns and the fact that it will help people prepare in a much more efficient way, but I disagree with the fact that in doing this, predicting the weather, people will be come completely reliable on this. These predictions are just that, predictions. By definitions a prediction is a claim that an even will occur in the future under uncertain terms. So while I agree with the fact that this will most likely end up being helpful I disagree with the fact that it should be what people completely depend on.
Nancy Tran- 5th
ReplyDeleteI personally do not think that scientists will have a very accurate prediction of what is going to happen. It's hard to believe that if they don't prepare themselves then it would be a very big problem in the end if anything happens. But lets face it, some natural disaters are unpredictable. Plus comparing a storm that happened in the 1800s to now is not going to help much, the world has changed alot and there is no idea of what is going to happen next, even with all of the technology to help us prepare for it. Although I do believe it's a good thing that scientists are trying their best to find a way to find a solution to this, if they do find a solution then they will be able to help others too.
Adrian Yearby-5th period
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to storms people over react a bit. I think that the whole thing behind it is to keep us safe but it tends to never be as bad as they say. I think it will helpful to people to look at other thing in the world than just weather disasters, yes there trying to warn us but they scare people to the point that there's nothing you can do.I do believe it's good that scientists are trying to find their best way to help people.
I think you can never really predict weather anything can really happen, its a funny thing . take hurricane Rita for example we thought it was going to hit texas but what ended up happening was that it curved and instead hit New Orleans, Louisiana. and this kind of weather on the west coast you need to expect COME ON PEOPLE, your living on a coast its not gonna be nice all the time. Although i do agree with the idea of making plans to be ready if something like a frankenstom does hit but i do think this should have been thought of along time ago. But there is also the over reaction factor which i think one to many people do that do not understand how to deal with a threat.
ReplyDeleteAnders Beato-6th period
Miranda Molina- Period 5
ReplyDeleteThe weather is a very hard to predict concept. There are many things that both contribute to it and things that turn around and change the fate. Not only inside of California, but in texas as well. There are many places where the weather is the same all of the time and rarely ever changes, but we unfortunetly do not have that here. When the weather does hit unexpectedly, it shi=ouldn't be unexpected. It is up to the goverment and the people as well to take the precautions nessary to survive.
Alain Lee Period 6
ReplyDeleteI recently saw the movie 2012 and im not saying that I totally believe in the Mayan calendar and that the world is going to end in 2 years but this is what they were talking about, the weather changing. The bad economy is also another sign to the end. I have read that pollution is also causing these strange weather patterns in palces they dont normally happen and global warming is a big thing if this continues to go on without the help of civillians wanting to change the world and environment.
Amber Washington- 6th period:
ReplyDeleteI believe that no matter how hard scientists and special organizations try they will never know the complete effects a storm (i.e hurricane, tornado, earthquake etc.) has on people or the area in which the storm takes place. Of course, with all of the technology that mankind has today it is easier for us to predict when and where a natural disaster will occur. However, no one can predict how many lives will be lost, or how much damage is going to be caused. For example, I'm sure that scientists somewhat expected an earthquake to occur in Haiti, but would have never guessed how many lives were going to be lost. I'm sure that if they did predict that then people from all over would have tried to evacuate as many people out of Haiti as possible.
My point is that even though technology is advancing rapidly scientists will never truly understand the magnitude of these great storms.
Ebony Douglas-4th period
ReplyDeletePersonally i think weather is herd to predict, even though we have way more technology now than we did in the 1800's the storms we have recently had show us that yes we can see some of them coming, but depending upon the storm we cant really see how destructive or bad its going to be and that the storm could change and we dont exactly know what to expect. However i think that technology helps out alot beacause atleast we can see that a storm is coming and we can prepare for the worst, even though we dont know exactly what to expect.
Iram Nandolia Period 4
ReplyDeleteThough meteorologists can’t predict exactly what’s to happen tomorrow they give us a close enough estimate. Natural disasters can’t be stopped, but we can increase the frequency of them. Global Warming has caused many more weather patterns that don’t fit the area. Some say global warming was caused by us, if that’s the case it is much too late to try and turn global warming around. People wont change their ways soon enough.
Many people’s lives are lost in natural disaster, and no matter how advance our technology gets we’ll still going to lose lives.
So even though there are many eople trying to save us from getting hurt from disasters there is no guarantee it will help us.
Josh McKay 5th Period
ReplyDeleteI think that it is a good idea that they do the drill so that people know what to do if this vicious storm does hit. Nothing would be worse than that storm hitting and people not knowing what to do. The people would be adding chaos to the already chaotic storm. Which would not be good at all.
With the drill these people can be prepared for what is expected to come ahead. But of course there will be the few people that would think that they would be perfectly fine and not leave if they got evacuated, and we all have seen what has happened to those kinds of people. Hurrican Ike for example.
So if they get everyone they can to perform the drill, more people would be prepared and hopefully only their property gets damaged and not the people.
Reid Stacell-6th
ReplyDeleteI agree with Anders Beato, his point dealing with the many hurricanes we've faced in the last several years, we were never able to predict exactly where they would end up, the factors effecting their size, strength, and location are almost endless. But I do believe it is a good idea for researchers to draw and create scenarios for the local areas so that people can have an idea of how dangerous things can end up being. These are the kinds of things that can save many peoples lives. Also, if they prepare the areas dams, and power grids for disaster, then storms will become less of a serious problem.
Aaron Reed-Period 4
ReplyDeletei dont think predicting big weather storms is possible, because you can never know how big or how much damage it could actually do. unless it happens, for example when te predicting hurricane katrina , and how it was suppose to be a small storm, not that large. and in the end it was a very devastating storm and it destroyed alot of homes and places. and anything can happen with the weather, you can say its going to rain tomorrow and then it wont even be cloudy. so i say , you can never predict anything you cant control.How would you feel if you lived in california right now and they say a desctructive storm is nearing ? would you do, would you leave or stay ?
Andrew Tran 5th Period
ReplyDeleteI believe that what the scientists are doing with trying to prepare everyone for this devastating storm is a brilliant idea. Sure meterologists aren't always correct but what if they're right. It's always best to be prepared for the worst, especially with all the radical weather changes that we've been experiencing this year. With all the advancements in technology and the brains of all the people working behind it all I'm sure that California will be more than prepared for whatever happens.
Jackie Miller- Period 6
ReplyDeleteWeather is not entirely unpredictable. Meteorologists usually have a close idea of what the weather will be like in the near future, thanks to such modern technology. As for this storm, there is no reason not to prepare for it. If it will be as dastardly as explained in the above passage, I personally think that it is better to be prepared for it than unprepared. There has been such a flood before (1861-1862) so I would not doubt that it could happen again.
Grace Amaku-4th Period
ReplyDeleteSeeing that 'Frankenstorm' was predicted by professionals, as bizarre as the scenario may be, I believe it can actually happen. The drill they are conducting is going to be very helpful also.Yet for immigrants that will be coming into California should somehow also be informed. Yet the scenario may not occur altogether because it's based on estimates since the information wasn't recorded well during the 1861-1862 flooding. It's also interesting that the cause of this massive storm prediction is not stated. If I had to guess I would say global warming may cause it. Melting of the glacier ice caps would bring rushing waters to the shores of Southern California.
Edward Qin 5th
ReplyDeleteNatural disasters, a destructive force of planet earth. No matter what you do, you can not prevent it from happening, and it will always leave marks of the disaster wherever it might strike. But humans have not lived with it blindly, as time goes on, we developed smarter, more efficient way of minimizing the casualties and damage. As of now, we have the technology to calculate hurricanes and storm's strength, location, and movement. We can plan our precautions accordingly to it. With better precautions, there will be less damage, and that is exactly why the scientists studying natural disasters. The scientists are essential to any planning that will be discussed, whether an earthquake or a hurricane, because they will provide the data gathered from observations and tests. With the data, the city can plan the most efficient evacuation, precautions to infrastructures, and what to expect when it actually hits.
Even with all the technology available, flaws comes in with almost the same problems scientists try to solve. For examples, roads will be jammed in a large, populous city, people who are disabled or sick, people not cooperating with the plan, and many other factors too late to see before it happens. All those issues might make planning in the first place meaningless. However the scientists help study the situation, I think we just all have to accept the fact that disaster are part of our lives.
Eric Li-6th period
ReplyDeleteI do not think the scientists will accurately predict the next "Frakenstorm". Their counter measures agasint such a storm would not probably even work. For citizens living near the coast, I'd expect much losses and all the Californian coastline to be under water. Although the scientists are trying their best at preventing such a disaster, they know that in a real emergency, nothing will go as planned. Mother nature may even be more powerful than they thought.
Reinier D. C. 4th Period
ReplyDeleteWhy am I not surprise? California is known for its disasters. Disasters could happen at a random place, at a random time, and with a random result. Like for an example, last year, Ike hit Houston but everybody is already prepared because they already know where to hit, but sometimes without the proper equipment, meteorologist will be wrong and might have cost some lives as a result.
Jonathan Pecson
ReplyDelete6th period
The technology these days is very advanced compared to the technology during the 1800s but no matter how great the technology is we can not predict the weather. But what the scientists are doing is a good thing because it can help us to prepare for the worst thus saving more lives in the process. I am glad that California is doing this so something like this will not happen again and I hope for the best for them.
Brittany Bernard- 4th period
ReplyDeleteI think they cant predict what exactly is going to happen during a storm, they can just know what to expect and prepare for the worse. I think its good they try and predict as best they can what will occur, there for more lives can be saved and less damage can occur. As time goes by, technology changes and we can protect ourselves more and more every year. I think its good what California is doing and its helping out a lot of people.
Kevin Sabouni- 4th Period
ReplyDeleteThough technology over time has advanced durastically over the last few years, it is not likely that a scientist could predict the weather. The weather is as wild as the ocean, you never know which way the waves will and where they will collide with each other. These natural disasters are either man caused or just by nature. Some say it's from pollution from humans or other factors. No matter how far technology goes, the weather will never be predictable or controlled.
Elizabeth Smith -Period 4
ReplyDeleteAt least these people are trying to prepare for something that could happen. This freak storm might not happen again but if it does they will be ready and not running around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to figure out what to do at the last second. They are making a plan . Some countries don't even have a disaster plan. after the disaster strikes they are left stranded.
They are being prepared. Which will help in the long run.
Tatiana Rodriguez
ReplyDeleteThe thought of horrible weather frightens many. Just think about "8 feet of rain" and "nearly a third of the young state's taxable land" being destroyed bye water and flooding. All of this water could lead to "destruction of infrastructure." On top of this new rising issue, there are earthquakes that happen every so often in California. Seems like mother nature's got some beef with California or something. There also are some whites lies behind this though. Honestly, I don't think that "strom systems" will have over "hurricane-winds."
I dont think it is really possible to know what the weather is going to do but that is precisely why they call it predicting. Predicting is making guesses on what will happen by using intelligent facts to do so. If they knew what the weather was going to do they wouldn't call it predicting the weather. If the scientist are right about this freak storm, then the drill procedure is a good thing for the california residents because if it happens then they will atleast have a small clue as to what to do in an emergency situation. The facts that they predict for this storm are severe by all means and finding out what to do would be a wise decision for them.
ReplyDeleteKhyra Williams - 4th
ReplyDeleteI believe that you can predict weather, to a certain extent. You can’t say exactly where it is going to hit, how hard it’s going to hit and what the aftermath will be. I don’t believe you can take weather records from years and years ago and expect them to tell what the next hurricane is going to be like. The world’s geography and changes in its atmosphere causes variations in Earth’s weather patterns. We cannot base today’s weather on weather that was happening in the 1800s. We can’t predict the exact severity of a natural disaster, because it is natural, not manmade, so we cannot asses the damage until the damage has been done. But it is a disaster, so it shouldn’t matter if the man on Fox news says stay home through the hurricane or drop everything and leave, a disaster is serious no matter what the level or category.
Brittany Kuusisto
ReplyDelete6th period
I agree with Miranda weather is very hard to predict. So many things can change the weather so quickly. The weather can change faster than the weathermen can keep up, if we tracked weather constantly we wouldn't know what to believe because it's always changing. Some places have a constant weather patter, but many do not. Citizens should be prepared for what's to come but you can't be prepared for something out of the ordinary and unexpected. Tracking weather is just a difficlut task.
Seena Keerikattu
ReplyDelete5th Period
This storm is causing alot of caution and frightening many. They are preparing for a somewhat freak storm event in my opinion but it doesn't hurt to be prepared. If anything it would occur when it is least expected and they are preparing themselves for what is yet to come. The weather does change frequently and is somewhat difficult to keep up with. Manys may over react simply for their own safety and behalf which is viewed as a good thing. It is better to be prepared than not.
Trevor Mitchell
ReplyDelete5th period
Training for disaster scenarios like this is extremely important because, as many have said, the weather is extremely difficult to predict, particularly very far into the future, as very small actions can build up into very large consequences over a long period of time. For example, if one were to wiggle their hands in a certain direction at a certain point in a snowstorm, depending on all of the atmospheric conditions on the entire world as well as all of the non-atmospheric conditions (such as a bathtub faucet running)in the world, the weather in Mozambique could be somewhat rainy in a few weeks' time, or if facing in another direction while keeping all other variables in place, the next month in Malaysia could be dry but very windy. Small variables can add up to each other in minutely different ways, but the outcome could change dramatically (this is called Chaos Theory).
Judging from this simple theory (a theory in the scientific sense, not in the sense of everyday speech [where "theory" means unproven hypothesis]), it's important to prepare for such an occurrence as outlined in the article, because such a storm could, in theory, come relatively out of nowhere due to conditions in other places and people need to be ready for such a storm.
Paula Salmon-6th period
ReplyDeleteI think that the technology to predict the weather has improved tremendously over the past 100 years. It has improved to the point that one can predict what a major storm could possibly be like and what damage it could do. But I think that this “Frankenstorm” is a bit exaggerated. The weather conditions would have to be just right for this huge storm to even start forming (kind of like hurricanes have to have the right conditions to form). The likelihood of all the conditions for this storm being met at the right time in the right order is not very likely. But I would rather be safe from the storm than sorry that I hadn’t prepared for it if I lived in California.
Mikayla Winland 5th period:
ReplyDeleteAs many people have said before me, weather is hard to predict. Houston especially is hard to predict in that we can have snow one week and the next week the teperatures can be in the 70s. These scientists are lucky that they have more advanced technology to predict such things as California flooding next year. I personally believe that it can not rain for so long. I do believe that it is a smart idea for the people in California to prepare for this storm if it does happen next year or at anytime. There are many things that we can predict, but weather is not something that we can know exactly what is going to happen. With the new technology, scientist can inform the area of the disaster ahead. In 1861 and 1862, people usually did not know that something would strike until it does, and then it is too late.
Michelle Kuo ; 5th period .
ReplyDeleteAs many of the students have already stated above, disasters can`t necessarily be predicted accurate. However, with all the new technology that`s been invented and tested, meterologists have been able to gather enough data to get a close measurement and report.
The awareness that the people of California are taking should be an example of what maybe the state of Texas should do as well. In school, we have drills for earthquakes and fires, but what about out of school? Families and companies don`t spend as much time thinking about what could happen when a disaster strikes. They don`t have a solid plan.
Beth Sutton - Period 5(:
ReplyDeleteThe violent storms in California could be the result of El Nino, which occurs every 4 to 12 years. Though they are pressured, scientists do have time to figure out the best plan to save California from the devastating effects of the weather. On the other hand, there is no way they can predict the next period of horrible weather. All they can do is plan for the worst, and hope for the best.
Although scientists worked very hard on this, there is no way that it can be completely accurate. The weather patterns are constantly changing and there is no way that everyone could be positive that this could happen. It is wonderful that we have the technology to be able to predict somthing as drastic as this, but I do not believe that it could actually predict true results. I do think that it is good to have this just for practice though.
ReplyDeleteAnnie Donovan
5th period:)
Eriel Yeldell 6th period
ReplyDeleteThe scientists predictions are pretty scary as almost implicating like a bad tropical storm.But, there has been a history of meterologists being wrong, they're never a hundred percent sure.hopefully, if that does happen that California will recover quickly and continue with things regularly because of now the world doesn't need anymore disasters after Haiti.
Scott Samwell- 4th period
ReplyDeleteNatural Disasters are terrible,But they will happen.they leave a scar on a nation that takes time to fade,like the tsunami of 04 that devastated south-east Asia.Slowly but surely these nation recover and their experience will teach them to prepare.
Advances in technology help us predict these natural disasters but we have no way of preventing them,though you can prevent some damage from happening it is inevitable to stop the whole thing.
California is one of those states that is prone to these natural disasters,they have huge wildfires that wipe out a majority of its country side,Mudslide that destroy homes,and rain that brings flood.It also has a large portion of it landmass bordered by water witch makes it vulnerable to everything the ocean can throw at it .
Josilyn Thomas
ReplyDelete6th period
No scientist can tell us exactly what the weather is going to be like in the future, but they can at least give us a close estimate on what it might be like. Natural disasters can’t be stopped by human forces or basically anything, but the one thing we can do is making the chances of a natural disaster occur less. Like for example global warming is mainly caused by us the people because of pollution. Also we can’t really do much to make global warming stop from happening because too much has already occurred. Death rates that occur are mostly caused by natural disasters. Even though scientist, and other people try to help us from getting injured we can’t always be sure.
May Lin
ReplyDelete4th period
I think it is good that the scientists are stimulating a worst case weather scenario. Since the global climate is changing, the weather is usually unpredictable. With global warming and an overexploited mother nature, we will never know exactly where, or what future disaster will bring. With advanced technology today, we may perhaps able to be more prepared than our predecessors in the 1800’ storms. We can only hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
Chris Pena
ReplyDelete4th period
I think the state of California should be prepared for a disaster to happen but not over prepared because you can not really predict when a natural or man made disaster will hit, but by keeping there guard up they can help save many life's and make things easier to deal with if there is ever going to be a disaster. I honestly think you can not perdeict when a disaster will happen though. To predict the weather is one thing, but to preidict a disater is a whole new ball game.
Joel Jacob - 6th period
ReplyDeleteThe weather is very unpredictable but going to the extent to simulate a Franken storm and build a safety plan is ridiculous. California is preparing for a storm that does not exist just because of a heavy rain. They might as well prepare for every possible situation, sometimes when nature strikes mankind just has to take the blow. Global warming is making conditions more drastic and changes in the weather are occurring more frequently but to set in place a drill for a storm that probably won’t even happen. This is a complete waste of money that California does not have to spend. Just because of a freak storm that happened 1861-1862 does not mean we have to prepare for an even freakier storm, the same scientist built an earthquake preparedness drill and they have never needed to use it. If California is preparing for a Franken storm, why doesn’t New York prepare for a freak blizzard? Sometimes these storms help the environment and not hurt them; they show the error in the way we do things. I think we should focus on the natural disaster we are causing; we cause the extinction of species and we are destroy our earth by polluting the earth we should spend our time and money fixing the problems we know how to fix rather than trying to prepare for problems that don’t extinct.
Vanessa Hurtado 4th pd
ReplyDeleteWeather is not easily predicted. Weather is nothing like climate. They are completely opposite. If we always tried to keep track with the weather we would never know what the weather would be like. You have to see what the weather will mostly be. having a plan for the craziest weather attack is good for a country. It prepares you for the worst. You do not have to wait for the worst thing to happen then try to come up with a plan.
Noel Jacob 5th
ReplyDeleteI am not very surprised about this. California has a history of bad weather. It is included in the ring of fire. That makes it very prone to earthquakes. It is also on the coast which makes it prone to weather from the sea. It is ironic that it is on the ring of FIRE and it is surrounded by WATER. It also lies on the corner of a tectonic plate. This makes it prone to earthquakes. Living here is a bargain. It is like living in Florida. It has nice beaches. It also has many hurricanes. Every place has it own goods and bads.
Sruthi Jayadevan
ReplyDelete6th period
It is very hard to predict the weather since there is a high probability that it can change. but i do think that safety precautions will ensure the safety of the citizens. early evacuation may cause trouble for businessmen and large corporations. but "prevention is better than cure".
I do agree with the fact that humans should not live blindly to natural disasters but rather do as much as they can to prevent or safeguard from them. However it is not easy and there is no specific way to do it. Sure, humans are smart but not smart enough to out-do nature and predict it. Nature is unpredictable as many of my fellow classmates have shared/
Zak Shagroni Per 4
ReplyDeleteI think that weather is almost impossible to predict. Like a few years ago hurricane rita was supposed to hit houston in 2005 but at the last second it left. Even though weather is unpredictable it does not mean you should't have a plan in case of emergency. Science can not prove what will happen in california. You can not prove something that is years ahead. A drill is not necessary because you can't tell what will happen. It could even happen in a day or never you never know. Nature is surprising
Anissia Wilson
ReplyDeletePredicting huge disasters is not yet possible because the devastation a storm leaves behind can sometimes be unimaginable. If you look at Haiti and New Orleans they have been destroyed by storms. Before Hurricane Katrina there was a picture on the news trying to show how much of the city would be destroyed if the storm’s eye hit New Orleans. The picture was of Jackson Square; Andrew Jackson sat on his horse that stood on two feet the water went up to Jackson’s head that statue is huge! In this case the prediction would have bee extremely accurate if the eye would have hit New Orleans. Storms would be a lot less trouble if we knew the accurate devastation before the storm happened. It is a great idea to try and predict but all predictions aren’t right some are close some are way off and some people can’t take chances with storms. Many people don’t have money to evacuate so they can’t leave every time a storm might hit. People on islands can’t go anywhere they are surrounded and if there is an earthquake no one will know until the earth moves and destroys lives. Weather is capricious you never know what it will do.
Jibin Kuzhippil- 6th
ReplyDeleteAs many people already said weather is an unpredictable and uncontrolable part of life that sometimes causes a lot of damage. we can't control it but we can prepare ourselves to be safe when it happens so that there will be less damage, less deaths, and less injuries. its true that we have a lot more technology now than we did in the 1800s but it never hurts to be prepared for the worst case scenerio. If something like the storm of 1861 were to occur today then i can almost guarrentee that more than half the people wouldn't know what to do and there would be mass panic. so i believe that it would be wise to inform people on what to do if something like this were to occur.
Chris Gallagher- 6th
ReplyDeleteI believe that the weather is unpredictable. Even with this new generation and all the advancements in technology the weather needs to be predicted and some of the predictions these meteroligists make are incorrect. If this natural disaster were to occur it will cause devestation throughout the state. This type of storm has a 50 percent chance of happening or not. Basically it is unpredictable as of now. I do believe though it is always good to prepare for the worst because weather has a mind of its own. Once the community is prepared there will be less casualties leading to a new beginning. So being prepared is always good but with this type of natural disaster it is unpredictable and as of now we can't say there is a 100 percent chance it will occur.
Lindsey Biggart Period.5 (:
ReplyDeleteI think that nature is something that no one will ever be able to fully understand, and be able to predict. I mean sure maybe over the years we have made things to help us prepare for natural weather storms, such as a hurricane, but even with those tools to help we can never fully rely on them. People can try to predict the weather all they want, and sure sometimes they may get lucky and be right, but the weather has mind of its own. It can choose to attack ANYWHERE at ANYTIME. It does help for people to know what to do to prepare the best they can so that we can save as many lives as possible.
Sean Dotson -6th Period
ReplyDeleteI personally think that weather is something that even with the best of technology no one will fully understand nor prevent it. I think that as time goes by we will start to have a better idea of what will the weather will be but I dont think that it will ever be certain. Mother Nature is just too unpredictable.
Ross Lasris 4th period
ReplyDeleteSure, the storm may be insane, but meteorologists will be able to see it coming, I'm sure, a while in advance leaving ample time for people to evacuate. Obviously, the weather is the weather and there is not much people can do to change that but minimal damage can be done to the livelihoods of the people who are sure to be hit by the storm if given a decent amount of time to evacuate. 8 feet of rain is insane and waiting in your house for it to stop would not be smart if people are given a few days to clear out, there would be minimal casualties and that is the most important thing.
Tyler Caldwell - 6th period
ReplyDeleteI would have to strongly disagree with what Mandy said because while the weather is an unpredictable thing, scientists and meteorologists have developed advanced systems of predicting the weather in a fairly accurate way. It is true you can never completely know the upcoming forecast, however people aren't stupid compared to how we used to be a long time ago. Now we have a better grasp on what is occurring and going to occur. People put their faith and trust into a meteorologist or thermometer like we do when we wake up and decide what to wear. I always see what the current temperature is to know if I should wear sweats and a hoodie to school or some shorts and a light shirt.
Rachel Choate, 6th Period
ReplyDeleteThese Frankenstorms are real! I thought from reading the title that they were pretend, but then I read that there was one in 1861-1862! It's hard to believe that something like that could happen, and if the canceled meetings are an indication of what's to come, it sure is an ominous foreshadowing. Wow. To think, that would wipe out Northern and southern California. It's like what I heard in one movie, the finger of God. (It was a movie about tornadoes, and a really extreme tornado that hit) It makes me feel more secure that our nation, our state will help us in foresight, before it even happens. They act on something that may never happen, and it amazes me how much effort they are putting into prevention. I mean, just to figure out if such a storm was possible is an incredible feat. I thank God that people are already starting to help us out in any way possible.
Trey Moore
ReplyDeleteI feel that natural disaters are very sadding. The disaters in Calafornia like earthquakes, mudslides, and wild fires are really epic. I feel its going to worstin because one of the scientist/meterolgists say these epic disasters are happening more frequently than ever.